NWS Forecast Discussion - New York City Area

Forecast Discussion for OKX NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KOKX 180111
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
911 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area this evening. High
pressure will then build across the region Wednesday through
Thursday, sliding offshore Friday night into Saturday. A frontal
system approaches Saturday night into Sunday with a prolonged
period of unsettled weather possible into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Adjusted probabilities to attempt to capture the bands of
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through with a pre
frontal trough and ahead of a cold front moving into the lower
Hudson Valley.

Winds across much of the area have shifted back to the south
ahead of the cold front, and then shift back to the NW behind
the cold front. The actual cold front moves through this evening
across western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and then
far eastern areas by early morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Drier and less humid conditions are tap for Wednesday with a
northerly flow and a highs in the 80s. Readings will be a few
degree above normal but it will feel much more comfortable
as dewpoints drop into the 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be
near seasonable levels.

Aloft, the upper trough axis swings across the area Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Lack of moisture though will keep the
region dry.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Wednesday due to a
3 to 4 ft southerly swell and offshore flow maintaining waves
around 3 ft in the surf zone.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period will begin will tranquil conditions as
middle and upper trough axis moves offshore. Ridging will build
aloft Thursday into Friday along with surface high pressure.
Near seasonable temperatures are expected on Thursday and
Friday.

There is good agreement among the models for the ridge to move
offshore late Friday into the weekend as a shortwave digs and
amplifies across the eastern states. This could potentially set
the stage for an unsettled period into early next week.

As the surface high moves offshore on Saturday, there will
likely be enough surface ridging to keep the area dry. However,
a frontal system associated with the shortwave/upper trough will
approach the region on Saturday. The latest models show the
warm front approaching Saturday night into Sunday morning. There
continues to be indications of a wave forming on the warm front
as a strong vort max moves up the coast. This will need to be
watched for any early morning strong thunderstorms with the
approaching warm front. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorm
chances continue into early next week overall as the frontal
system lingers nearby with a blocking ridge over the Atlantic.

Temperatures this weekend and into early next week will ultimately
be determined by how much clouds and precipitation occur, but should
be near or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will move across the region late tonight.

There is still the more narrow line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms that will move in this evening. Some more showers
have developed ahead of this line. Some brief IFR/MVFR
conditions will be possible with these showers with otherwise
mainly VFR conditions in place. Higher chances of thunder for
KSWF with lower chances elsewhere.

Winds generally variable in direction inland and more S-SW
towards the coast near 10 kts or less. Some uncertainty with
this wind direction this evening before the cold front moves
across late. That will enable a more consistent NW-N flow less
than 10 kt to develop after the front moves across.

VFR conditions and north flow persists into Wednesday.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: A chance of brief MVFR/IFR conditions this
evening. Timing of wind shift to NW could be 1-3 hrs off from
forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: A chance of brief MVFR/IFR conditions this
evening. Timing of wind shift to NW could be 1-3 hrs off from
forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: A chance of brief MVFR/IFR conditions this
evening. Timing of wind shift to NW could be 1-3 hrs off from
forecast.

KTEB TAF Comments: A chance of brief MVFR/IFR conditions this
evening. Timing of wind shift to NW could be 1-3 hrs off from
forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR could last 1-2 hours longer than
forecast. Timing of wind shift to NW could be 1-3 hrs off from
forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: A chance of brief MVFR/IFR conditions this
evening. Timing of wind shift to NW could be 1-3 hrs off from
forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday-Saturday...VFR.
.Sunday...MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below SCA overnight, as a S to SW swell
continues overnight.

Seas will gradually diminish through Wednesday with a lingering
southerly swell around 4 ft on the ocean waters.

Sub SCA criteria through Saturday morning. Seas will build on a
southerly flow on the ocean waters Saturday, with 5 ft waves by
Saturday night. Wind gusts should remain below 25 kt for the weekend.

With an approaching complex frontal system to affect the waters by
Sunday and a prolonged southerly flow, expect SCA conditions to
exist into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through the
region until late tonight may produce around a quarter of an
inch of rainfall.

An extended period of unsettled weather is forecast starting Sunday
into next week. Due to the uncertainty this far out, there is a low
chance of any hydrologic impacts.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CB/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MD/JM
MARINE...CB/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...CB/MET/DW
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion