NWS Forecast Discussion - New York City Area

Forecast Discussion for OKX NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KOKX 182015
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
415 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region by early this evening.
High pressure then ridges down southeastern Canada tonight through
Wednesday night. High pressure passes east Thursday and Friday
as low pressure moves into Canada. Warm front passes to the
northwest Friday, followed by a cold front Saturday. The front
settles to the south into early next week as high pressure
builds to the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
In terms of weather features, a cold front is making progress
moving through the region. The low attached to this front with
the remnants of Florence will be moving into the Gulf of Maine.
The front and low move farther away from the region tonight into
the Atlantic.

For tonight, with the low and front moving farther away, drier
conditions will move into place as surface winds become more
northerly. High pressure will begin to build in tonight from the
Great Lakes.

The flash flood watch was cancelled as the areas that were in
are just going to get some lingering light to moderate rain with
any heavy rain near the south and eastern sections of Long
Island which is where there is more thunderstorm potential. The
rain lingers into early this evening with dry conditions
thereafter with high pressure starting to then build in. MAV/MET
blend was used for low temperatures ranging from the low to
upper 60s.

There remains a high rip current risk into early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday and Wednesday night, mid and upper level ridging will
gradually move in from the west. At the surface, high pressure will
continue to build in from the north.

There will be an embedded mid level shortwave moving across
Wednesday. The low levels will feature more northerly flow and with
cooling temperatures as flow closer to the surface will be more NE.
Model soundings indicate inversion above the low level NE flow
so could have some times where there are more clouds with
moisture getting trapped below the inversion. The forecast has
more clouds across eastern sections for a period of time
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall though, cooler and dry
weather will be the main theme along with less humid conditions.

Temperatures will be on the cooler side from the N-NE flow.
Highs Wednesday range from the mid to upper 70s with lows
Wednesday night ranging from the low 50s to low 60s. Dewpoints
will be lowering into the low 60s Wednesday and mid to upper
50s Wednesday night.

There is a moderate rip current risk for Wednesday for Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridge Thursday and Friday gives way to weakening
shortwave and falling heights this weekend as the upper flow
flattens and the ridge gets suppressed to the south.  Heights begin
to rise again ahead of upstream trough early next week, with model
differences in details noted.

At the sfc, ridge of high pressure passes east Thursday and Friday
as low pressure moves into Canada. Warm front passes to the NW
Friday, followed by a cold front Saturday.

The front settles to the south into early next week as high
pressure builds to the north. The front likely moves back north as a
warm front ahead of downstream low pressure as it approaches ahead
of aforementioned upper trough.

Temperatures vary through the period. Ahead of the warm front,
expect near normal readings Thursday, with above normal Friday as
area sits in the warm sector. Once the cold front passes, temps
likely fall back to near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday, then
back to near normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front passes to the east by evening as high pressure builds
well to the north tonight into Wednesday.

Most of the shower/thunderstorm activity is now east of the NYC
metro. Any lingering MVFR conditions in showers/isolated
thunderstorms improves late this afternoon and evening. Generally
VFR is anticipated tonight into Wednesday morning as skies clear,
although cannot rule out some patchy stratus and fog overnight. Much
of this depends on strength of the northerly winds.

Winds shift to the N/NW, and diminish late this afternoon and
overnight. Northerly winds pick up Wednesday morning to 10-15
kt. A few gusts to 20 kt is likely.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Improvement to VFR with northerly winds expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: Improvement to VFR with northerly winds expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: Improvement to VFR with northerly winds expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: Improvement to VFR with northerly winds expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: Improvement to VFR with northerly winds expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Improvement to VFR with northerly winds expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday afternoon...VFR. N winds G15-20KT possible.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...Chance of showers with MVFR possible.
.Friday-Friday night...VFR during the day, then a chance of
showers with MVFR at night.
.Saturday-Sunday...An early shower Saturday, then VFR through
the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA has been extended for eastern ocean from Fire Island east
through Wednesday. SCA for western ocean west of Fire Island
remains in effect until 6AM Wednesday. Sub-SCA conditions
expected otherwise for other waters. There is potential for SCA
conditions for all ocean zones Wednesday night. However,
confidence is not high enough to have SCA extended through
Wednesday night.

Winds shift around to the E/SE Thursday, then S/SW Friday as speeds
pickup ahead of a cold front. Winds shift behind the front Saturday,
shifting to the NW and eventually E/SE Sunday.

Lingering 3-5 ft ocean seas may subside somewhat, then build
slightly as south winds pickup Friday. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions
are anticipated through the late week period and this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Most rainfall will be less than quarter of an inch except for
south and eastern sections of Long Island where additional rain
could reach up to near near a half inch with locally higher
amounts possible. There could be some minor flooding if any
heavy rain lingers there but otherwise no other additional
flooding is expected. No rain expected from mid evening through
Wednesday night.

No significant hydrologic impacts are expected Thursday through
Tuesday of next week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion